This one has effectively closed before it ever truly opened. Real Madrid were reported to view Josko Gvardiol as their preferred defensive target, but the picture has since turned firmly the other way: Manchester City are moving to tie the 24-year-old Croatian down with a new contract, weakening any exit signal. With his existing deal running to June 2028 and a renewal in motion, the live state is best described as collapsed rather than dormant. The sourcing tells the story neatly. The original Real Madrid interest came from a single speculative link by Graeme Bailey four days ago, explicitly framed as 'on radar' language with no bid, no talks and no corroboration. Against that, the renewal news is corroborated heavily and credibly — by Fabrizio Romano, Ben Jacobs, Nicolo Schira and Florian Plettenberg, all within the last day. A thin link has been overtaken by a strong, multi-voice consensus. The two per cent reflects exactly that imbalance. For this to revive, City would have to abandon the contract talks they are actively pursuing, and Madrid would need to convert a vague preference into an actual bid in the discussed £68.9m–£97.2m range. Neither is happening. The longshot figure is honest: the door is closing, not opening. For context on the money, Madrid have spent big on defenders and stars before — £108m from Dortmund in 2023, £80m from Man Utd in 2009, £68m from Monaco in 2022. Gvardiol himself cost City £77m from Leipzig in 2023, so any fee here would sit in keeping. Watch the contract announcement. Once City confirm the renewal, this is done.