Methodology

How Transfer Tracker scores a transfer

Every rumour carries a live probability built from who is reporting it, how credible they have proven, how independent the reports are, and how the story has moved · never a guess, never a vibe.

The system in brief

• Probability · every report is weighted by the source's proven track record and independence; official confirmations freeze a deal at 100%, reporter-grade "done" calls read 98% until a club announces.
• One coherent story · when several clubs chase one player, the shares across destinations always sum to 100%, so two pages can never disagree about the same player.
• Fees · money figures come from what reporters actually said, checked against the transfer register when a deal completes · a settled deal shows the registered fee, not an old estimate.
• Receipts · source trust is graded against the official transfer register, not our own calls · the scorecard shows every landed and collapsed call per reporter.

Read the full methodology. Open on transfertracker.ai