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Tabloid reports onlyBroke 20d ago ·

Vinicius Junior to Arsenal

Attacker · 26y · Brazil · contract until 2032
1%
Chance it happens in January

No trusted reporter yet. Stories like this complete 6 in 100 times.

Carried by FussballTransfers (aggregator), TEAMtalk (tabloid), CaughtOffside (aggregator), FootballTransfers (aggregator), El Nacional via Transfer News Live (aggregator) and @latigoserrano via Transfer News Live (aggregator).
Fee
Not reported
Powered by Transfer TrackerValue
€182m
Reporters
1
Where he ends up in the January windowEvery outcome by the January deadline, adding up to 100%. A move in a later window is not counted.
  • ArsenalArsenalThis rumour
  • Other clubNot yet named
  • Real MadridStays at Real MadridNo move
What the number is based on
  • ReportingNo trusted reporter6 outlets, all tabloids or aggregatorsAgainst the move
  • ContractRuns to June 20325 years 8 months leftAgainst the move
  • ArsenalRoom to spendMoves from La Liga to Premier League are commonFor the move
  • FeeNot reportedValue €182m
The story so far
7 reports · newest first
  1. latigoserranoTrust 46via Transfer News LiveFull post

    “🚨 Arsenal remain interested in Real Madrid winger Vinicius Junior, with Manchester United also monitoring his situation. Real Madrid could consider selling the Brazilian if he fails to regain a regular place in the starting line-up.”

  2. FootballTransfersTrust 55AggregatorAggregatorReport

    “Vini Jr to Arsenal? Jose Mourinho drops transfer hint. Jose Mourinho has played down rumours that Vionicius Junior may be sold next year by admitting that he “loves” the Brazil international.”

  3. El NacionalTrust 46via Transfer News LiveFull post

    “🚨 Arsenal are set to send representatives to explore Vinicius Junior's situation at Real Madrid. Mikel Arteta wants to discover whether the Brazilian would consider a potential move to Arsenal.”

  4. CaughtOffsideTrust 50AggregatorAggregatorFull post

    ““You have to listen…” – Agency chief reveals Arsenal’s “aggressive” transfer offer was tempting. Arsenal’s “aggressive” efforts to sign Real Madrid star Vinicius Junior over the summer have been confirmed by Roc Nation president Michael Yormack.”

    TEAMtalkTrust 55TabloidTabloidFull post

    “Arsenal’s ‘aggressive’ approach for Vinicius Jnr revealed as agent drops Real Madrid bombshell. The Brazilian's representatives have spilled the beans on just how close the Gunners came to signing the Real Madrid superstar this summer, having revealed Berta's strong charm…”

    FussballTransfersTrust 55Earliest mentionEarliest mentionReport

    “Arsenal war „sehr aggressiv“ bei Vini. Der FC Arsenal warb im Sommer offenbar sehr intensiv um die Gunst von Vinicius Junior. Im Gespräch mit ‚Sportsboom‘ bestätigt Michael Yormack, Präsident von Roc Nation Sports International: „Arsenal (…)”

Quotes in German are shown as written. English translations are added for major stories.

Chance it happens in January
1%
Long shot
Value
€182m
Powered byTransfer Tracker

Vinicius Junior to Arsenal: talk persists, but deal nowhere close

The situation

Vinicius Junior stays at Real Madrid for now, and the freshest reporting only reheats a story from the summer. The latest line, relayed by Transfer News Live via a source called @latigoserrano on 6 November, says Arsenal remain interested and that Manchester United are also monitoring him, with Real Madrid said to be open to selling only if he loses his starting place. That is a world away from an active deal. Earlier pieces, including one citing his agent Michael Yormack, make clear Arsenal pushed hard for him in the summer, but Vinicius signed a new long-term contract at Real Madrid instead, which is why he now has 66 months left on his deal when the January window opens on 1 January 2027.

The reporting

Every outlet carrying this is a tabloid or aggregator, not a trusted reporter. FussballTransfers was carrying it by 21 October, repeating claims that trace to Roc Nation's Yormack, and the rest, from FootballTransfers to CaughtOffside to TEAMtalk, are retelling the same summer story rather than adding fresh detail. No trusted reporter has backed any of it.

The outlook

Given he just extended at the Bernabeu and no club move is actually advancing, this looks like a long way off happening in the next window. Real Madrid show no sign of wanting to sell, and nothing suggests Arsenal have made an approach since the summer collapsed.

What happens next

Vinicius is valued at €183m. For that to change, Real Madrid would need to drop him from their starting line-up or signal a genuine willingness to talk, and Arsenal would need to revive contact beyond mere interest.

Sources the analyst weighedFussballTransfersTrust 55TEAMtalkTrust 55CaughtOffsideTrust 50FootballTransfersTrust 55@latigoserrano and El Nacional via Transfer News LiveTrust 46
Written by the Transfer Tracker Analyst from the reports on this page, checked against our live numbers
Follow for alerts
Historical precedent
2018FlamengoReal MadridReal Madrid from Flamengo€45m

Vinicius Junior’s real transfer fees, for context, not a prediction.

Who is behind this story
FussballTransfersEarliest mention
Outlet · Bundesliga
1 report on this storyfirst 21 Oct
Trust 55
TEAMtalkTabloid
Outlet · Premier League
1 report on this storyfirst 21 Oct
Trust 55
FootballTransfersAggregator
Outlet · Premier League
2 reports on this storyfirst 21 Oct
Trust 55
CaughtOffsideAggregator
Outlet · Premier League
1 report on this storyfirst 21 Oct
Trust 50
Transfer News LiveAggregator
Outlet · Global · Quoting @latigoserrano and El Nacional
2 reports on this storyfirst 23 Oct
Trust 46
Questions about this transfer
How likely is Vinicius Junior to join Arsenal?

Transfer Tracker rates Vinicius Junior to Arsenal at 1%, a longshot on the current reporting from 1 reporter.

Probability & estimates are modelled opinions from public reporting · informational only, not fact or betting advice.