Exit likelihood ranking

The top players most likely to leave this window

By the Transfer Tracker Data Desk · Updated 1 September 2026

Most likely to leave: Iliman Ndiaye · Near-certain (85%+): 3 · Universe: Top 250 by value

Which of the world’s best are genuinely on their way out. We take the top 250 players by market value and rank them on exit likelihood: the strongest live, credibly-sourced move each is the subject of, from a first agreement all the way to a "here we go". Iliman Ndiaye leads at 96%. A name in a headline is not enough — this is who is actually leaving.

3 of these are as good as gone, agreed and awaiting only the formalities. Below them sit the genuinely live departures still to be settled. A player only appears once a real move exists, so this is elite movement that is actually happening, not transfer-window daydreaming.

How this ranking is put together

The universe is the top 250 players in the world by market value. Each is ranked on his exit likelihood — the probability of his strongest live, credibly-sourced departure, scored from reporter credibility, corroboration, recency and how far the move has progressed. Near-certain "here we go" exits are included because an agreed move means the player is leaving; only officially-confirmed departures are removed, since they have already gone. Players whose only signal is a running-down contract are tracked separately on the expiring-contracts ranking.

Which top player is most likely to leave this window?

Iliman Ndiaye is the top-250 player most likely to leave, with an exit likelihood of 96%, most likely to Manchester City.

How is exit likelihood worked out?

It is the probability of a player’s strongest live departure — the single most advanced, best-sourced move he is the subject of — scored from how trusted the reporters are, how many corroborate it, how recent it is and how far the deal has progressed.

Why aren’t star players in their final contract year at the top?

Because a contract running down is not the same as leaving — the biggest names usually renew. A raw contract date is also unreliable in the data (it can be a loan end or a pre-signing figure), so it does not drive this list. Genuine final-year names are tracked on the expiring-contracts ranking instead.

Why only the top 250 players?

To keep the list about the names that matter. Restricting the universe to the 250 most valuable players in the world means this ranks genuine elite movement, not a lower-league deal that happens to carry a high probability.

More rankings

• The transfers most likely to happen right now
• The best players out of contract in 2027
• The most valuable football players in the world

See the full ranking, updated live. Open on transfertracker.ai