Live probability ranking
By the Transfer Tracker Data Desk · Updated 17 October 2026
Strongest live deal: Kevin Schade · Rated 70%+: 0 · With a fee agreed: 10
The deals still genuinely in the balance, ranked by how likely they are to get over the line. Deals already agreed and announced (the "here we go" moves) have effectively happened and belong on the Done Deals board. This is the live market still to be decided. Every move is scored from the credibility of the reporters, how many independents corroborate it, how recent it is and how far it has progressed. Kevin Schade leads at 25%.
| # | Player | Move | Stage | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Schade | Brentford → Arsenal | Rumour | 25% |
| 2 | Nicolò Tresoldi | Club Brugge → Atletico Madrid | Rumour | 21% |
| 3 | Gonçalo Inácio | Sporting CP → AC Milan | Rumour | 21% |
| 4 | Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal → Atlético Madrid | Rumour | 20% |
| 5 | Pedro Porro | Tottenham Hotspur → FC Barcelona | Rumour | 18% |
| 6 | Lucas Bergvall | Tottenham Hotspur → Juventus | Rumour | 18% |
| 7 | Richarlison | Tottenham Hotspur → Galatasaray | Rumour | 16% |
| 8 | Maxi Araújo | Sporting CP → Arsenal | Rumour | 15% |
| 9 | Endrick | Real Madrid → AC Milan | Rumour | 14% |
| 10 | Pavel Sulc | Olympique Lyonnais → Aston Villa | Rumour | 14% |
| 11 | Jules Koundé | FC Barcelona → Liverpool | Rumour | 11% |
| 12 | Lisandro Martínez | Manchester United → Atlético de Madrid | Rumour | 11% |
| 13 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City → FC Barcelona | Rumour | 10% |
| 14 | Gessime Yassine | Strasbourg → Chelsea | Rumour | 10% |
| 15 | Lisandro Martínez | Manchester United → FC Barcelona | Rumour | 10% |
| 16 | Nicolò Tresoldi | Club Brugge → AC Milan | Rumour | 9% |
| 17 | Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal | Rennes → Newcastle United | Rumour | 9% |
| 18 | Pavel Sulc | Olympique Lyonnais → Juventus | Rumour | 9% |
| 19 | Lamine Camara | Monaco → Liverpool | Rumour | 8% |
| 20 | Kevin Schade | Brentford → Liverpool | Rumour | 8% |
| 21 | Troy Parrott | Real Betis → Tottenham Hotspur | Rumour | 8% |
| 22 | Darryl Bakola | Sassuolo → Juventus | Rumour | 8% |
| 23 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City → Arsenal | Rumour | 7% |
| 24 | Joshua David Steven King | Fulham → FC Barcelona | Rumour | 7% |
| 25 | Endrick | Real Madrid → Liverpool | Rumour | 6% |
| 26 | Jules Koundé | FC Barcelona → Chelsea | Rumour | 6% |
| 27 | Vangelis Pavlidis | Benfica → Tottenham Hotspur | Rumour | 5% |
| 28 | Pierre Kalulu | Juventus → Liverpool | Rumour | 5% |
| 29 | Giuliano Simeone | Atlético de Madrid → Manchester United | Rumour | 5% |
| 30 | Geny Catamo | Sporting CP → Tottenham Hotspur | Rumour | 5% |
| 31 | Álex Baena | Atlético de Madrid → Tottenham Hotspur | Rumour | 4% |
| 32 | Alphonso Davies | FC Bayern München → Manchester United | Rumour | 4% |
| 33 | Eric García | FC Barcelona → Paris Saint Germain | Rumour | 4% |
| 34 | Scott McTominay | Napoli → Real Madrid | Rumour | 3% |
| 35 | Issa Doumbia | Sporting CP → Newcastle United | Rumour | 3% |
| 36 | Scott McTominay | Napoli → Aston Villa | Rumour | 2% |
| 37 | Nicolò Tresoldi | Club Brugge → Arsenal | Rumour | 2% |
| 38 | Issa Doumbia | Sporting CP → Juventus | Rumour | 2% |
| 39 | Troy Parrott | Real Betis → Manchester United | Rumour | 2% |
A high score here is not a done deal: everything above has cleared the noise but still has to survive the final stretch: a medical, a work permit, a selling club holding out for one more clause. 10 of these already have a fee agreed in the public domain, which usually means only the paperwork is left. The rest are live negotiations where the probability is doing real work.
Ranked by live transfer probability, not fame or fee, and deliberately filtered to the deals still in the balance. A move is scored from the trust rating of the reporters behind it, the number of independent corroborations, the recency of the latest update and the stage reached. Deals that are confirmed or already at "here we go" are removed: they have effectively happened and sit on the Done Deals board instead.
Kevin Schade (Brentford → Arsenal) is currently the strongest live deal still genuinely in the balance, scored at 25%.
Because a "here we go" is a done deal bar the paperwork: it has effectively happened. Listing it under "most likely to happen" would just be a slower Done Deals board. This page is the live market still to be decided, so agreed and announced moves are filtered out.
Four things move the number: how trusted the reporters are, how many independent sources say the same thing, how recent the latest update is, and how far the deal has progressed. It updates live as the story develops.
See the full ranking, updated live. Open on transfertracker.ai
Data as of 17 Oct 2026, 23:50 UTC · pages refresh several times daily · live numbers load in a moment.