Live probability ranking
By the Transfer Tracker Data Desk · Updated 17 July 2026
Strongest live deal: Timon Wellenreuther · Rated 70%+: 20 · With a fee agreed: 36
The deals still genuinely in the balance, ranked by how likely they are to get over the line. Deals already agreed and announced (the "here we go" moves) have effectively happened and belong on the Done Deals board — this is the live market still to be decided. Every move is scored from the credibility of the reporters, how many independents corroborate it, how recent it is and how far it has progressed. Timon Wellenreuther leads at 92%.
| # | Player | Move | Stage | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timon Wellenreuther | Feyenoord → VfL Wolfsburg | Rumour | 92% |
| 2 | Erencan Yardımcı | TSG Hoffenheim → 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Rumour | 91% |
| 3 | Armando Obispo | PSV → RC Lens | Rumour | 88% |
| 4 | Noel Aseko | FC Bayern München → Eintracht Frankfurt | Fee agreed | 88% |
| 5 | Sima Suso | Fortuna Düsseldorf → FC Augsburg | Rumour | 86% |
| 6 | Tom Heinz Wisbereit | current club → FC Augsburg | Rumour | 79% |
| 7 | Felix Meiser | FC Augsburg → Fortuna Düsseldorf | Rumour | 74% |
| 8 | Kayne van Oevelen | FC Volendam → Ipswich Town | Fee agreed | 74% |
| 9 | Alejandro Mestanza | Getafe → Académico Viseu | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 10 | Álex Sala | Lecce → Mallorca | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 11 | Anthony Bermont | Lens → Angers | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 12 | Antonio Raimondo | Bologna → Frosinone | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 13 | Azzedine Ounahi | Girona → Ajax | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 14 | Guillermo Maripán | Torino → Internacional | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 15 | Haris Tabakovic | TSG Hoffenheim → Salzburg | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 16 | Mathis Jangeal | PSG → Famalicão | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 17 | Matías Moreno | Fiorentina → Wrexham | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 18 | Mattia Fortin | Lens → Palermo | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 19 | Romano Schmid | Werder Bremen → Cagliari | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 20 | Trevoh Chalobah | Chelsea → Como | Fee agreed | 72% |
| 21 | Hennes Behrens | TSG Hoffenheim → FC Augsburg | Rumour | 69% |
| 22 | Exequiel Zeballos | Boca Juniors → Napoli | Rumour | 68% |
| 23 | Maghnes Akliouche | Monaco → PSG | Rumour | 68% |
| 24 | Max-Edgar Chabot | Angers → Manchester City | Rumour | 68% |
| 25 | Nayel Mehssatou | Standard de Liège → KV Kortrijk | Rumour | 68% |
| 26 | Pervis Estupiñán | AC Milan → Aston Villa | Rumour | 68% |
| 27 | Oumar Solet | Udinese → Inter | Rumour | 66% |
| 28 | Andrej Vasovic | Luzern → Club Brugge | Rumour | 62% |
| 29 | Gideon Mensah | current club → 1. FC Köln | Rumour | 62% |
| 30 | Keshi Anderson | Portsmouth → Manchester City | Rumour | 62% |
| 31 | Louey Ben Farhat | Karlsruher SC → Eintracht Frankfurt | Rumour | 62% |
| 32 | Savinho | Manchester City → Tottenham | Rumour | 62% |
| 33 | Alexander Sørloth | Atlético de Madrid → Juventus | Rumour | 60% |
| 34 | Ibrahima Ba | Famalicão → RC Strasbourg | Rumour | 58% |
| 35 | Lassine Sinayoko | Auxerre → Paris FC | Rumour | 55% |
| 36 | Morgan Rogers | Aston Villa → Arsenal | Rumour | 55% |
| 37 | Sergi Domínguez | Dinamo Zagreb → Lazio | Rumour | 54% |
| 38 | Raphael Onyedika | Club Brugge → Eintracht Frankfurt | Rumour | 49% |
| 39 | Shandre Campbell | Club Brugge → KV Kortrijk | Rumour | 49% |
| 40 | Alejandro Garnacho | Chelsea → AS Roma | Rumour | 48% |
A high score here is not a done deal: everything above has cleared the noise but still has to survive the final stretch — a medical, a work permit, a selling club holding out for one more clause. 36 of these already have a fee agreed in the public domain, which usually means only the paperwork is left. The rest are live negotiations where the probability is doing real work.
Ranked by live transfer probability, not fame or fee, and deliberately filtered to the deals still in the balance. A move is scored from the trust rating of the reporters behind it, the number of independent corroborations, the recency of the latest update and the stage reached. Deals that are confirmed or already at "here we go" are removed — they have effectively happened and sit on the Done Deals board instead.
Timon Wellenreuther (Feyenoord → VfL Wolfsburg) is currently the strongest live deal still genuinely in the balance, scored at 92%.
Because a "here we go" is a done deal bar the paperwork — it has effectively happened. Listing it under "most likely to happen" would just be a slower Done Deals board. This page is the live market still to be decided, so agreed and announced moves are filtered out.
Four things move the number: how trusted the reporters are, how many independent sources say the same thing, how recent the latest update is, and how far the deal has progressed. It updates live as the story develops.
See the full ranking, updated live. Open on transfertracker.ai