Live probability ranking
By the Transfer Tracker Data Desk · Updated 1 September 2026
Strongest live deal: Enzo Fernández · Rated 70%+: 4 · With a fee agreed: 40
The deals still genuinely in the balance, ranked by how likely they are to get over the line. Deals already agreed and announced (the "here we go" moves) have effectively happened and belong on the Done Deals board — this is the live market still to be decided. Every move is scored from the credibility of the reporters, how many independents corroborate it, how recent it is and how far it has progressed. Enzo Fernández leads at 90%.
| # | Player | Move | Stage | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enzo Fernández | Chelsea → Manchester City | Rumour | 90% |
| 2 | Jean-Clair Todibo | West Ham United → Lens | Fee agreed | 79% |
| 3 | Elye Wahi | Eintracht Frankfurt → Nice | Fee agreed | 79% |
| 4 | Honest Anahor | Atalanta → Chelsea | Rumour | 74% |
| 5 | Hugo Larsson | Eintracht Frankfurt → Fulham | Rumour | 62% |
| 6 | Andrei Rațiu | Rayo Vallecano → Fulham | Rumour | 62% |
| 7 | Youssouf Fofana | AC Milan → Lione | Fee agreed | 56% |
| 8 | Yankuba Minteh | Brighton & Hove Albion → Liverpool | Rumour | 55% |
| 9 | Malick Fofana | Olympique Lyonnais → Arsenal | Rumour | 55% |
| 10 | Jamie Leweling | VfB Stuttgart → Roma | Rumour | 48% |
| 11 | Lamine Camara | Monaco → Chelsea | Rumour | 48% |
| 12 | Azzedine Ounahi | Girona → Ajax | Rumour | 48% |
| 13 | Joshua Zirkzee | Manchester United → Juventus | Rumour | 47% |
| 14 | David Affengruber | Elche → Southampton | Rumour | 47% |
| 15 | Artem Bondarenko | Shakhtar Donetsk → Al Ahli | Rumour | 46% |
| 16 | Luiz Henrique | Zenit → Botafogo | Rumour | 45% |
| 17 | Pedro Neto | Chelsea → Al Hilal | Rumour | 40% |
| 18 | Oumar Solet | Udinese → Crystal Palace | Rumour | 38% |
| 19 | Ismaïla Sarr | Crystal Palace → Liverpool | Rumour | 35% |
| 20 | Kévin Danois | Auxerre → Crystal Palace | Rumour | 34% |
| 21 | Richard Ríos | Benfica → Beşiktaş | Rumour | 33% |
| 22 | André | Wolverhampton Wanderers → Roma | Rumour | 31% |
| 23 | Dean Henderson | Crystal Palace → Nottingham Forest | Rumour | 30% |
| 24 | Evan Ferguson | Brighton & Hove Albion → Genoa | Rumour | 29% |
| 25 | Manu Koné | Roma → Chelsea | Rumour | 22% |
| 26 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace → Aston Villa | Rumour | 22% |
| 27 | Quinten Timber | Olympique Marseille → Crystal Palace | Rumour | 22% |
| 28 | Alexander Sørloth | Atlético de Madrid → Manchester United | Rumour | 22% |
| 29 | Bilal El Khannouss | VfB Stuttgart → Galatasaray | Rumour | 21% |
| 30 | Castello Lukeba | RB Leipzig → FC Barcelona | Rumour | 20% |
| 31 | Youssouf Fofana | AC Milan → Olympique Lyonnais | Rumour | 20% |
| 32 | Chrislain Matsima | FC Augsburg → Fulham | Rumour | 20% |
| 33 | Julián Alvarez | Atlético de Madrid → Arsenal | Rumour | 18% |
| 34 | Matías Soulé | Roma → Newcastle United | Rumour | 18% |
| 35 | Marc Casadó | FC Barcelona → RB Leipzig | Rumour | 16% |
| 36 | Jaydee Canvot | Crystal Palace → Paris Saint Germain | Rumour | 13% |
| 37 | Richard Ríos | Benfica → Roma | Rumour | 13% |
| 38 | Marc Casadó | FC Barcelona → Beşiktaş | Rumour | 13% |
| 39 | Keito Nakamura | Reims → Hull City | Rumour | 13% |
| 40 | Malick Fofana | Olympique Lyonnais → Sunderland | Rumour | 12% |
A high score here is not a done deal: everything above has cleared the noise but still has to survive the final stretch — a medical, a work permit, a selling club holding out for one more clause. 40 of these already have a fee agreed in the public domain, which usually means only the paperwork is left. The rest are live negotiations where the probability is doing real work.
Ranked by live transfer probability, not fame or fee, and deliberately filtered to the deals still in the balance. A move is scored from the trust rating of the reporters behind it, the number of independent corroborations, the recency of the latest update and the stage reached. Deals that are confirmed or already at "here we go" are removed — they have effectively happened and sit on the Done Deals board instead.
Enzo Fernández (Chelsea → Manchester City) is currently the strongest live deal still genuinely in the balance, scored at 90%.
Because a "here we go" is a done deal bar the paperwork — it has effectively happened. Listing it under "most likely to happen" would just be a slower Done Deals board. This page is the live market still to be decided, so agreed and announced moves are filtered out.
Four things move the number: how trusted the reporters are, how many independent sources say the same thing, how recent the latest update is, and how far the deal has progressed. It updates live as the story develops.
See the full ranking, updated live. Open on transfertracker.ai
Data as of 1 Sept 2026, 05:36 UTC · pages refresh several times daily · live numbers load in a moment.